Technical observations across Indian markets.

Why the Business Structure Looks Strong

• Robust Growth: Revenue jumped 38% YOY, driven by strong consumer demand.
• Franchise-led Expansion: Growth primarily driven by franchisee stores, improving capital efficiency and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE).
• Digital Brand Performance: Candere, the company's fully owned digital-first jewellery brand, recorded 112% YoY revenue growth.
• Gold Exchange Initiatives: The "Shine with India" campaign drives gold exchange, now accounting for 46%+ of total revenue.
• Technical Turnaround: On a technical basis, the stock has broken above a key resistance zone and its 200 DMA with high volume, breaking the sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

Accumulation Zones & Risk Management

Avoid FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) buying with full capital at current levels. Spread purchases across two defined buying zones, with a strict stop-loss on a closing basis to manage downside risk (never risk more than 2% of total investment capital on a single stock):

Action Type	Price Range	Rationale
Buy Zone 1 (20-25%)	₹490 – ₹510	Captures immediate cooling near the newly established daily pivot lines.
Buy Zone 2 (Heavy Accumulation)	₹440 – ₹460	Re-testing the major structural breakout zone; exceptional risk-to-reward ratio.
Stop Loss (Closing Basis)	₹375	Placed safely below the structural ₹380–₹390 medium-term baseline support.

3-Year Valuation Outlook

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Indicative Price Objective (3-Year)
Bear Case (Weak)	Slower earnings growth, weaker jewellery demand, margin pressure.	₹600 – ₹650
Base Case (Likely)	Steady execution, healthy demand, stable margins.	₹700 – ₹750
Bull Case (Best Case)	Fast store expansion, higher profitability, premium valuation.	₹800 – ₹900
Risk (Thesis Break)	Gold price spike, demand slowdown, or execution delays that break the core investment thesis.	Below ₹400

Key Risks & Quarterly Checklist

Monitor sharp rises in gold prices, slowdowns in discretionary consumer spending, same-store sales growth (SSSG), EBITDA margins, ROCE, new store additions, and Candere's performance metrics.

IPO Structure and Dynamics

This issue is a 100% Offer for Sale (OFS) by the existing shareholders, State Bank of India (SBI) and Amundi. No fresh capital is being raised by the company, meaning all proceeds go directly to the selling shareholders.

Industry Outlook & Investment Highlights

India's mutual fund industry is significantly under-penetrated compared to developed global markets and exhibits robust structural tailwinds, driven by:

• Financialisation of Savings: Steady household shift from physical assets (gold, real estate) to financial assets.
• SIP Popularity: Increasing systemic equity inflows via monthly mutual fund SIPs.
• Digital Expansion: Wider reach through emerging fintech and digital investing platforms.

Why the Business is Attractive

• Market Leadership: India's largest AMC by Assets Under Management (AUM) and leader in SIP inflows.
• SBI Bank Network: Massive bank distribution network and trusted retail brand identity across India.
• Product Diversification: Clean historical performance across a broad spectrum of equity and debt funds.

Key Risks to Monitor

• Market Sentiment Dependency: Business performance and AUM growth are directly tied to capital market trends.
• Expense Ratio Regulations: Potential regulatory modifications on the Total Expense Ratio (TER) could limit margin expansion.
• Competition: Intense competition from bank-backed AMCs and low-cost passive index players.

For over two decades, Indian IT companies generated the majority of their revenues from software development, application maintenance, testing, and support services. With generative AI tools automating routine coding and testing tasks, the demand for traditional, volume-based coding resources is slowing down. Consequently, IT companies are investing heavily in AI capabilities and reskilling their workforce to transition into AI-driven digital transformation partners.

The recent correction in IT stock prices (correcting nearly 34–38% from their peaks in several cases) reflects this changing industry dynamic rather than a terminal decline. Slowing global IT spending from US and European clients has added near-term pressure, leading to lower earnings expectations and a valuation reset. However, this correction presents selective investment opportunities in high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, healthy cash flows, and robust AI and cloud migration capabilities.

Where Are the Opportunities? (Next 3–5 Years)

• Large, Diversified IT Leaders: Well-capitalized players with strong client relationships and active AI investments.
• Engineering & AI Specialists: Focused on software-defined vehicles, industrial automation, and R&D (e.g., Tata Elxsi).
• AI & Data Companies: Helping enterprises clean and prepare data sets for AI models (e.g., Persistent Systems, Coforge).
• Data Centre Support: Businesses supporting power, cooling, and construction infrastructure for data centres.

Key Risks to Monitor

Investors should track the pace of AI disruption, pricing pressure on traditional IT contracts, global technology budgets, and the availability of AI-skilled talent in India.

1. Ather Energy Ltd (NSE: ATHERENERG / BSE: 544397)

Ather Energy has displayed a consistent uptrend since its post-listing accumulation phase resolved in August 2025. The price action maintains a healthy Higher High - Higher Low (HH-HL) structure, repeatedly printing fresh 52-week highs which reflects strong institutional and retail demand.

• Medium-term Outlook (6–12 Months): Accumulate on corrective pullbacks into the ₹905–₹956 demand zone. Suggested stop-loss is ₹870 (daily close basis) with price targets at ₹1,250 / ₹1,380 / ₹1,550.
• Short-term Swing View (3–6 Months): Enter on a continuation breakout above ₹1,070 with a tight stop-loss at ₹965, targeting ₹1,240 / ₹1,350. Use tight position sizing (1-2% risk) as mean reversion risk is higher near all-time highs.

2. Ola Electric Mobility Ltd (NSE: OLAELEC / BSE: 544225)

Following a prolonged distribution phase after its IPO, Ola Electric hit an all-time low of ₹21.21 in March 2026. The recent price action, however, indicates a structural shift from a Lower High - Lower Low (LH-LL) downtrend to an emerging HH-HL recovery structure. Price has reclaimed the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, showing early signs of a trend change.

• Medium-term Outlook (6–12 Months): Accumulate on pullbacks near ₹39–₹42. Suggested stop-loss is ₹32 (daily close basis) with price targets of ₹57–₹58 / ₹72 / ₹80–₹83.
• Short-term Swing View (3–6 Months): Aggressive entry can be considered near current levels (~₹46) if supported by volume confirmation, with a stop-loss below ₹37, targeting ₹56 / ₹64.